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INTRODUCTION OF THE STUDY
1.1 Background of study
A major debate that exists in the economic world is one on the relationship between financial markets and real economies and economic growth. The major question that exists asks, “Is there causality in the relationship between economic growth and financial markets? If the causality exists, does economic growth cause a growth and expansion in financial markets, or does an expanded financial market cause an increase in the economy of a nation?” The debate dates back to the early 20th Century (see Schumpter, 1912). Many more studies dealt with the issue above by using cross-country regression methods to establish the causality of the relationship, a majority of this studies used bank- based data on financial development. However, recent data, (Levine and Zervos, 1996), shifted the emphasis from bank based to stock market Indicators to establish the link between financial markets and economic growth. The major shortcoming with the former method of study is that it did not cater for the country specific needs; hence, the unusual and unique differences of the emerging markets and the developing world were not taken into account. It is because of this that there was an outburst in doing country specific researches on this fundamental relationship
Traditional growth theorists however believe that there is no correlation between stock market development and economic growth; due to the presence of level, effects not rate effects. The stock markets are not necessary institutions for achievement of high levels of economic development. It is described rather as a harmful agent to the economy by its high tendency to market failures; a characteristic of the stock markets mercurial nature in developing countries (Singh, 1997; Singh and Weis, 1999). Contrary to the traditionalist view, there exists evidence supporting the correlation between stock market development and economic growth. However, there exists little practical evidence on the importance of stock markets development to long run economic growth in developing countries. Thus, it is hard to conclude satisfactorily this debate without further empirical evidence on the area of developing countries, and in our case, Kenya . A well-organized and managed stock market will facilitate an economy‟s increase in economic growth by increasing the liquidity of financial assets, diversification of global and domestic risk, promotion of wiser investment decisions and influencing better corporate governance (Vector, 2005). It also stimulates investment opportunities by financing of productive projects that lead to economic activity, mobilization of domestic savings and efficient allocation of capital. In addition to this, the stock markets are an indicator of forecasting economic growth through stock price.
In Kenya, the principle stock market is the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) formally known as the Nairobi Stock Exchange. It was initiated in 1964, under the then colonial government. It is Africa‟s fourth largest stock exchange in terms of trading volumes and fifth in terms of market capitalization. In view of the world, trade markets have experienced their most explosive growth over the past decade, emerging equity markets have experienced an even more rapid growth, taking on an increasingly larger share of this global boom. For example, while overall capitalization rose from $4.7 trillion to $15.2 trillion globally, the share of emerging markets jumped from less than 4 to 13 percent in this period.
Trading activity in these markets surged equally fast: the value of shares traded in emerging markets climbed from less than 3 percent of the $1.6 trillion world total in 1985 to 17 percent of the $9.6 trillion shares traded in all world‟s exchanges in 1994. With this in mind, Kenya needs to have a share of this global pie for advantages in both economic growth and development and increase in investment levels. In order to fill the gap identified above, this paper uses data from the Nairobi Securities Exchange data to assess the relationship between Stock market development and long-run economic growth. By regressing the data and using time series analysis to find the correlation between the financial markets and Economic growth using previously used models, we will analyze the results and present suitable recommendations concerning the conclusion reached.
1.2 Problem Statement
Kenya as a developing country needs the stimulus it can get to propel its economic development and share in the global pie of financial market. The problem is lack of proper empirical evidence on the effect of the stock markets as a driver of economic development and investment levels. This paper seeks to offer more substantial evidence to support the correlation between stock market and economic growth, and on the investments levels in developing countries, with focus in Kenya’s
Nairobi securities Exchange.
1.3 Purpose of the research
The research establishes how capital markets in Kenya for example Nairobi Securities Exchange are related to the economic growth of the country. Considering that Kenya is a developing country.
1.4 Objectives of the study.
This study’s general objective is to test the correlation between stock market investment levels and real economic growth. Specifically, the study presents three core objectives courtesy of;
- Evaluation of the impact of stock market on the investment function of the country’s GDP hence by extension how the stock market influences country’s economic growth.
- Evaluation of existing literature on investments in the stock market.
- The relationship between GDP and market capitalization, stock index and turnover.
1.5 Research questions
- What type of effect does the stock market have on a developing economy?
- What sectors of the economy are advantaged by a better stock market?
- What is the relationship between GDP and market capitalization, stock index and turnover?
1.6 Significance of study
- The study offers empirical evidence and develops a framework for evaluating their correlation in developing economy like Kenya.
- The study ensure that better polices to be drawn up to develop this sector of an economy eg Kenya.
- The study aids researchers to expand their research into the stock market.
1.7 Scope of study
The study focuses on developing countries with specifics on the Kenyan (NSE) compared to their GDP statistics. It will identify the indexes cause and effect of the institutions affected.
1.8 Limitation of study
- Confidentiality-the NSE can have confidentiality with their information which they may not be willing to give it out to the researcher.
- Respondents may refuse to complete questionnaires or maybe they can fill the questionnaires with wrong information.
- Financial limitations-the researcher may have insufficient funds to carry out the research.
- Time-the time may limit to carry out the research because it may be having deadlines.
- LITERATURE REVIEW
Literature review is surveys of scholarly articles and other sources relevant to a particular issue, area of research providing a description, summary and critical evaluation of each work.
2.1.1 IMPACT OF STOCK MARKET ON COUNTRY’S GDP AND HOW STOCK MARKET INFLUENCES COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC GROWTH.
A majority of the existing literature debates on the relationship between financial markets and real economies and economic growth. The major question that exists asks, “Is there causality in the relationship between economic growth and financial markets? If the causality exists, does economic growth cause a growth and expansion in financial markets, or does an expanded financial market cause an increase in the economy of a nation?” Before answering the above questions, it is important that we define financial markets, real economies and economic growth. Financial markets are a trading place where buyers and sellers participate in trade of assets such as equities, bonds, currencies and derivatives, defined by a having an apparent pricing, basic regulations on trading, costs and fees. In other words, a mechanism allows people to transact financial securities at low costs and prices that reflect efficient market hypothesis. The financial markets include stock exchanges, commodity exchanges, bond markets and the foreign exchange market. This paper focuses on the stock markets. Real Economy on the other hand is the physical side of the economy dealing with goods services and resources. Economic growth, finally, is the increase in the amount of the goods and services produced in an economy over time. It is conventionally measured as the percent rate of increase in (GDP) gross domestic product.
The traditional growth literature was not suited to explore the relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth this is because it focused on steady-state level of capital stock per worker or productivity, but not on the rate of growth (which was attributed to exogenous technical progress). The recent revival of interest in the link between financial development and growth stems from the insights of endogenous growth models, in which growth is self-sustaining and influenced by initial conditions. In this framework, the stock market shows it does not only have level effects, but also rate effects (e.g. Levine, 1991) Bose (2005) offers a theoretical financial model that explains the positive correlation between stock market development and economic growth; the model, based on the hypothesis that for levels of GDP per capita higher than a certain threshold the information costs become lower than bankruptcy costs, determining the development of capital markets. Hence, it is explained why stock markets appeared late after banks. Graff (1999) stated that there are four possibilities concerning the fundamental relationship between financial development and economic growth:
126.96.36.199 Financial development and economic growth are not causally related.
Financial development does not influence the economic growth rate. Both grow independently of each other Modern economic growth is governed by real factors, whereas financial development was rooted in the history of financial institutions.
188.8.131.52 Financial development follows economic development.
As the economy grows, the financial institutions change and develop thus it is demand driven.
184.108.40.206 Financial Development is a determinant of economic growth.
This is a two way model that presents the following arguments
- Financial development is a precondition for economic growth implying that inadequate financial structures are an obstacle to economic growth and
- Financial development actively promotes economic growth: provided there are no real barriers to economic development, refined financial systems can be a basis for high and sustained rates of economic growth
220.127.116.11 Financial development is an impediment to economic growth.
As in the previous hypothesis, the causality runs between financial development and real development but the focus lies in destabilizing effects of financial crises rather than on the efficient functioning of the financial system. Using this hypothesis, many economists direct their energies toward the stock market.
The complexity of the causality between economic growth and capital markets is in the fact that it is influenced by more factors excluding capital market development, which is also a result of many influencing factors. In addition, there are interactions between these factors that are likely to be dominant.
2.1.2 EVALUATING EXISTING LTERATURE ON INVESTMENT IN STOCK MARKET.
Economists argue differently about the relationship between financial growth and Economic markets. Stiglitz (1989) and Mayer (1989) dispute that there is relevance between real economic activity and Stock markets. While arguing against a relationship between financial markets and the real economy, Stiglitz (1985) debates that stock markets reveal information through price changes rapidly, creating a joy rider problem that reduces investor incentives to conduct costly search.
However, the core of this debate is tracked down to Schumpter (1912) who argues financial services are a necessity in promoting economic growth. He states production requires credit and that one can only become an entrepreneur after becoming a debtor, because his/her main requirement to start off initially is credit. He writes, “The banker, therefore, is not so much primarily the middle man in the commodity „purchasing power‟ as a producer of this commodity … He is the ephor of the exchange economy”1.
Keynes observes, “As the organization of investment markets improves the risk of the predominance of speculation does, however, influence of speculation is enormous… Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise, but the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation.
When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill done. The measure of success attained by Wall Street, regarded as an institution of which the proper social purpose to direct new investment into the most profitable channels in terms of future yields cannot be claimed as one of the outstanding triumphs of laissez-faire capitalism2”. His Scepticism in this passage relates to the enthusiasm of investment in stock markets and its relationship to economic development and in relation to a country‟s investment needs. He argues that equity based financial systems put countries at a disadvantage as compared to those without the open stock markets.
In their theoretical study, Bekaert and Harvey (1997) disregarded this argument basing their opinion on the fact that stock markets play an important role in the economic growth. They state, “Without efficiently run capital markets, investors have limited means to diversify their portfolios, corporations in countries with poorly functioning capital markets may choose lower value low risk projects to inefficiently diversify in order to attract investment capital.”
In addition to this argument, capital markets provide resources for investors to diversify in various fields that were not in their scope of study, hence improving the general output of the firm and the economic situation as a whole. Furthermore, stock markets allow the investors to utilize their savings in meaningful ways by injecting them back into the economy. This allows them a fair chance and gives them a voice to make decisions in terms of the economic outlook of a firm in both long term and short term. In relation to the economy, the stock markets acts as means of increasing productivity3 Not only does the stock market influence the productivity of firms, it is also a good indicator of economic growth and capital accumulation, both of which are crucial in the GDP by being components of the Investment function. King and Levine (1993) state that the level of financial intermediation is a good predictor for economic growth rate, capital accumulation and productivity.
Carlin and Mayer (2003) in their extensive study on the relationship between financial markets development and economic growth concluded that there is a strong relationship between the structure of the countries‟ financial systems and economic growth.
Other economists are of a different view concerning the effect of liquidity on long-term economic growth.
However, some analysts argue that stock markets encourage investor myopia. Because they make it easy for the disgruntled investors to sell quickly, liquid markets may weaken investors‟ commitment and reduce investors‟ incentives to exert corporate control by overseeing managers and monitoring firm performance and potential. According to this view, enhanced stock market liquidity may actually hurt economic growth. Schumpeter (1912) argued that technological innovation is the force underlying long-run economic growth, and that the cause of innovation is the financial sector‟s ability to extend credit to the entrepreneur. Joan Robinson, on the other hand, upheld that economic growth creates a demand for various types of financial services to which the financial system responds, so that “where enterprise leads finance follows” (1952, p. 86), hence promoting economic development. This leads to a basic two-model argument for the relationship between financial markets and economic growth as labelled by Patrick (1966).
- The supply following demand argument
- The demand following supply argument
These hypotheses tend to be important to a country especially when making policies concerning both foreign and local development investment policies. As will be shown later in the empirical literature review, both the above named theses have applications in both the developed and the developing nations as studies done that are inclusive of both economic worlds.
18.104.22.168 The supply-leading hypothesis
This posts a causal relationship from financial development to economic growth, which means, strong financial markets and institutions increase the supply of financial services thus leads to real economic growth. In this regard, many economists are of the school of thought that financial development is important and causes economic growth and are of the school of thought that creation and strengthening of the financial institutions and markets could augment the supply of financial services. This is because the financial sector increases savings, and apportions them to investments that are more productive. As said by Ghani (1992), “A country which starts with more developed financial system tends to grow faster because it is capable of improving the efficiency of resource used”.
Greenwood and Jovanovich (1990) state, “A well functioning market can increase economic efficiency, investment and growth” While supporting the above hypothesis, King and Levine (1993) found that a new stock exchange could increase economic growth by aggregating information about firms‟ prospects thereby directing capital to investments with returns. The effects of a stock market opening can result in a measured increase in productivity (Baier, Dwyer and Tamura (2003)). North (1991) found out that the creation of a stock exchange could increase economic growth by lowering the costs of exchanging ownership rights in firms, an important part of some institutional stories of economic growth. A new stock market also can increase economic growth by reducing holdings of liquid assets and increasing the growth rate of physical capital (Bencivenga and Smith 1991).
Ghani(1992) states a country which starts with a more developed financial system tends to grow faster because it is capable of improving the efficiency of the resources used. Singh (1997) finds out that the stock market is expected to accelerate economic growth by providing a boost to savings and increasing the quality of investment. Levine and Zervos (1996) argue that the stock market promotes savings by providing the individual with an additional financial instrument that may increase the quality of investments. In addition, Capasso (2003) argues that companies in countries with developed stock markets are less dependent on bank financing, which can reduce the risk of credit crunch, hence stock markets are able to influence the economy positively by increasing savings for individuals which are being reinvested into the economy by providing capital for firms.
Brasoveanu et al (2008) suggest find a link from economic growth to capital markets proposing that financial development follows economic growth, economic growth determining financial development to change and develop. In this regard, stock markets therefore provides corporate control by promoting financial discipline which is expected to provide the best guarantee of efficiency in the use of assets (Ujunwa and Salami, 2010)
- The demand-leading hypothesis
In this view, there is a causal relationship from economic development to financial systems. The financial development of a country increases because of the overall economic growth of the real economy. In addition, an increasing demand for financial services might induce an expansion in the financial sector as the real economy grows. Robinson (1952) writes “It seems to be the case that where enterprise leads finance follows.” In addition, some economists stress on the inactive role of the financial markets in motivating economic growth. . Lucas (1988) argues that economists often amplify the role of financial factors in economic development.
In a survey of the factors that stimulate economic growth, Stern (1989) did not mention the role of the financial system in economic growth. Similarly, a collection of essays by the pioneers of development economics do not describe the role of the financial system in economic growth. Without a doubt, in keeping with these economists, the financial system plays an insignificant role in economic growth. Calderon and Liu (2002) in a study of 109 countries concluded the Granger causality from financial development to economic growth and the Granger causality from economic growth to financial development coexist in 87 of the developing countries and 22 of the industrial countries. Gurley and Shaw (1967), Goldsmith (1969) and Jung (1986) also support this hypothesis.
- THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GDP AND MARKET CAPTALIZATION, STOCK INDEX AND TURNOVER.
For example in the case of an ineffective manager, the shareholders can vote to have them fired resulting in increased productivity among workers hence a higher output. In turn, there is a positive correlation to the economic growth rate as in the case of an increased Market Capitalization Ratio and Turnover Ratio in the stock market .
A ratio used to determine whether an overall market is undervalued or overvalued. The ratio can be used to focus on specific markets, or it can be applied to the world market depending on what values are used in the calculation.
Market capitalization to GDP=stock market capitalization x 100
The market capitalization/GDP percentage currently is higher than in 2004 and 2005 in the beginning stages of bullrun. The National Stock Exchange market capitalization as percentage of gross domestic product is very low.
2.3 EMPIRICAL LITERATURE
Lease et al (1974) found that divided income, long-term capital appreciation and intermediate term gains were important investment concerns of individual investors. This study was about how investors made decisions to invest. Studying the link between domestic stock market development and internationalization, Claessens, Klingebiel and Schmukler (2006) using a panel data technique, concluded that the log of GDP per capita positively influences domestic stock market development. Stock market liberalization, in turn positively influences the stock market internationalization.
The capital account liberalization and the country growth opportunities and negatively influenced by the government deficit/GDP ratio. Levine (1991) proposes that investing in the stock market alleviates both the liquidity shock and the productivity shock that firms would otherwise face. Firms not facing liquidity shocks will have a higher level of investment leading to a higher growth rate (at al Solow). His study showed that there is a relationship between expected returns and the level of different choices to a spread and hence reduce risks Stock prices determined in exchanges, and other publicly available information help investors make better investment decisions. Better investment decisions by investors mean better allocation of funds among corporations and, as a result, a higher rate of economic growth.
Levine and Zervos (1996) included measures of stock market development and found a positive partial correlation between both stock market and banking development and GDP per capita growth. More specifically, they reported a positive and considerable link between liquidity of stock markets and economic growth, but no strong relationship between the size of stock markets and economic growth.
Minier (2003) evaluated the influence of the stock market dimension on economic development by regression tree techniques; he found evidence that the role of the positive influence of stock market development on economic growth held only for developed stock markets in terms of turnover, in the case of underdeveloped stock markets, the influence is negative. Atje and Jovanovic (1993) test the hypothesis that the stock market has a positive impact on growth performance. They find a significant connection between economic growth and the value of stock market traded divided by GDP for forty countries over the period 1980-88. Similarly, Levine and Zervos (1996) use pooled cross-country, time series regression to evaluate the relationship between stock market development and long run economic growth.
Using data on 41 countries over the period 1976-1993 and after controlling for initial conditions and other factors that may affect economic growth, they conclude that stock market development remains positively and significantly correlated with long run economic growth. In a later study, using data from 47 countries, from 1976-1993 Levine and Zervos (1998) found out that stock market liquidity is positively and significantly correlated with current and future rates of economic growth. They therefore conclude that stock markets provide important but differential financial services from banks. Mohtadi and Agarwal(2004), while examining the relationship between stock markets development and economic growth for 21 emerging countries over a period of 21 years using a dynamic model, found results that suggested a positive relationship between indicators of the stock market performance and economic growth, both directly and indirectly as well, by boosting investment behaviour.
Fry M. J. (1998) studied the factors that institutional investors consider in making decisions on investments in shares traded at the NSE. Her study was based on insurance companies, retirement benefit schemes and fund management companies. It did not include all other categories of firms listed at the NSE nor did it include firms that are not quoted. She concluded that institutional investors largely investors maximize their returns from capital gain or dividends. They undertake their ordinary share analysis within a risk return context to identify valuable shares to make investment decisions on portfolio analysis selection, management and performance appraisal. They at the same time considered factors such as quality of management, debt, company growth in sales, return on equity, earnings per share, government policy, exchange rate, domestic debt and commodity prices when considering their investments.
Kamanda, (2001) Studied the empirical evaluation of portfolio held by insurance companies in Kenya. He found out that there are only few insurance companies that are objective in choosing shares for inclusion in their portfolio, hence able to deliver superior portfolios than both the market and NSE portfolio. In general, both the market portfolio and the NSE portfolio outperformed the insurance industry portfolio. Kamanda‟s study like Magbenu‟s is important to this study in that it shows that apart from risk and return, insurance companies consider other factors when making their decision on portfolio composition. Several scholars have analyzed the correlation between economic growth and capital market development. Calderon and Liu (2002), list five main results from their study of the causality between economic growth and financial studies.
- Financial development enhances economic growth for all countries; hence, an improvement in capital market propels a more prosperous economy.
- There is evidence of bi-directionally causality when countries are split into developing and industrialized countries implying that financial depth stimulates growth and simultaneously growth propels financial development
- . In addition an expansion of the real sector in industrialized nations mainly, can considerably control the development of the capital markets
- The longer the sampling interval, the higher larger the effect of financial development on economic growth. This proposes the impact of financial markets ion the actual industries is long term.
- Financial development may enhance economic growth through both more accumulation of capital and technological changes. In addition, the causal relationship from finance to Total factor Productivity growth is stronger than for industrialized economies.
In their conclusion, they state, “This paper provides an empirical basis for promoting financial and economic development. It has two important policy implications, especially for developing countries. First, to gain sustainable economic growth, it is desirable to undertake further financial reforms. Second, to take advantage of the positive interaction between financial and economic development, one should liberalize the economy while liberalizing the financial sector. In other words, strategies that promote development in the real economy should also be emphasized”
In this regard, financial development is a calculation constituent for economic growth because the capital markets give a trend of the future growth opportunities, while its liquidity is a good predicator of the GDP per capita growth, one of whose elements is investment, the function we wish to increase that we may cause an economic growth in the end. Although in cross-country models it can be portrayed a correlation between financial development and economic growth, it is questionable in developing nations whether an active capital market is a stimulating factor for economic growth. However, as stated in the Filer, Hanousek and Campos (1999) findings, an affirmative answer would imply an important role of the public policies and international aid targeted at introducing and maintaining capital structures.
Independent Variables Dependent Variable
Chapter three has the designs used, sampling design and the data analysis techniques.
3.2 Study Design
The researcher will adopt descriptive research design to aid in obtaining necessary data. Descriptive research or statistical research design provides data about the population being studied. Descriptive data is used when the objective is to provide a systematic description that is as factual and accurate as possible. It provides the number of times something occurs, or frequency, lends itself to statistical calculations. The two most commonly types of descriptive research designs are observation and surveys.
We will analyze the link between Capital Market and the economic growth in Kenya on annual data from 1992 to 2010. In order to calculate efficiently the role of the Stock market in the Investment function in the Kenyan economy, we use data from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), Emerging Markets Database (EMDB) and the Nairobi Stock Exchange. We present the following variables used to describe Capital market and economic growth
3.2 Stock Market variables
Market Capitalization Ratio (MCR): the value of listed shares divided by GDP. The assumption behind this measure is that overall market size is positively associated with the ability to mobilize capital and diversify risk on an economy-wide basis Total Value of Shares Traded (STR): the total values of shares traded on NSE divided by GDP. The total value traded ratio measures the organized trading of firm equity as a share of national output and therefore should positively reflect liquidity on an economy-wide basis. The total value traded ratio complements the market capitalization ratio: although a market may be large, there may be little trading.
Turnover Ratio (TR): The value of total shares traded divided by Market Capitalization. Though it is not a direct measure of theoretical definitions of liquidity, high turnover is often used as an indicator of low transaction costs. The turnover ratio complements the market capitalization ratio. A large but inactive market will have a large market capitalization ratio but a small turnover ratio. Turnover also complements the total value traded ratio. While the total value traded ratio captures trading relative to the size of the economy, turnover measures trading relative to the size of the stock market. A small liquid market will have a high turnover ratio but a small total value traded ratio.
Economic Growth Variables Growth: This measure will be from the World Development Indicators (2000) data set. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Foreign direct investment is used as a control variable since it is presumed that FDI is a determinant of economic growth. Investment (INV): This measure is defined as real investment divided by GDP.
INTERPRETATION, ANALYSIS AND PRESENTATION OF DATA
This section does present the data, the results of data analysis and the interpretation. From a sample size of 145 targeted respondents, the researcher was able to secure responses from 142 respondents. This is presented in the table below.
The study requested respondents to provide background information about them for the purpose of the study. The results are presented in the tables that follow
Table 4 shows that from among the respondents, majority (56%) were male, while minority (44%) was female. This implied that gender representation in NSE community is fairly even.
|Age in Years||Frequency||Percent|
Table 5: Age
The date in table 5 shows that the demographic group, was between ages of 35 and 39, followed by the groups aged 25 to 34, (38.4%). This shows that the membership in the NSE is primarily people who can be considered as employees (between the ages of 18 and 50) who collectively accounted for 92.5 % of the respondents.
|Level of Education||Frequency||Percent|
Table 6 showed majority (51.28%) were holders of Bachelors Degree. What this table shows majority (100%) of the respondents had received some form of tertiary education.
|Duration of time||Frequency||Percent|
|Less than 2 years||4||10.25|
|Less than 5 years||6||15.38|
|less than 10 years||7||17.94|
|Less than 25 years||13||33.33.............|
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